Critical Thinking and Decision Making – BIM (TU) Question Paper 2014 | 7th SEM

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Critical Thinking and Decision MakingTribhuvan University | Faculty of Management
BIM / Seventh Semester / Year: 2014 (2071)
LOG 201: Critical Thinking and Decision Making

Full Marks: 60 | Time: 3 Hrs
Candidates are required to answer all the questions in their own words as far as practicable.

Attempt all Questions
Group “A” – Brief Answer Questions: [10 X 1 = 10]

1. List four importance of critical thinking.
2. Write four advantages of qualitative approach of decision making.
3. State the characteristics of directive decision making style.
4. Define fuzzy logic.
5. Distinguish between linear creativity and lateral creativity.
6. List the techniques for improving group decision making.
7. What is sensitivity analysis?
8. List four abilities of a creative person.
9. Give the concept of utility function in one sentence.
10. Write four benefits of brainstorming.

Group “B” – Short Answer Questions: [6 X 5 = 30]

11. What is fallacious reasoning? Explain any four common fallacious with example.
12. What is the importance of decision making process? Explain the different approaches of decision theories.
13. What do you mean by judgmental biases? Describe any four types of judgmental biases and their corrective procedures.
14. The research department of a company has recommended to the marketing department to launch a product of three different types. The marketing manager has to decide one of the types of the product to be launched under the following estimated payoffs for various level of sales:

Types of productEstimated level of sales (units)

What will be the marketing manager’s decision if a) Maximin b) Maximax c) Laplace and d) regret criteria are applied?

15. Describe briefly the relationship between problem solving and decision making. Explain the process of problem identification and formulation.
16. Chandan had to decide whether or not to drill a well on his farm. In his village, only 40% of the wells drilled were successful at 200 feet of depth. Some of the villagers who did not get water at 200 feet. Drilled further up to 250 feet byt only 20% struck water at 250 feet. Cost of drilling is Rs.50 per foot. He estimated that he would pay Rs. 18000 during a five year period in the present value terms, if he continues to buy water from the neighbor rather than go for the well which would have a life of five years. He has three decisions to make: a) should he drill upon 200 feet and b) if no water is found at 200 feet, should he drill up to 250 feet? c) Should he continue to buy water from his neighbor? Draw a decision tree and give best solution to him.

Group “C” – Comprehensive Answer Questions: [2 X 10 = 20]

17. A retailer stocks bunches of fresh-cut flowers. He has an uncertain demand; the best estimates available follow:

Demand (bunches)20254060

The retailer buys these for $6 a bunch and sells then for $10.

a. Set up the payoff table.
b. If he stocks 40 every day. What will his expected profit per day be?
c. What quantity should he buy every day to maximize expected profits?
d. What is the expected value of perfect information for him?
e. Construct an opportunity loss table and fine EOL.

18. Consider a game in which each player selects one of three colored poker chips: red, white or blue. The players must select a chip without knowing the color of the chip selected by other player. The player the reveal their chips. Payoffs to player A in dollars are follows:

Player APlayer B
Red b1White b2Blue b3
Red a10-12
White a254-3
Blue a323-4

a. Determine the optimal strategies that should be adopted by players A and B.
b. What is the value of the game?

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